Whoa: Demand For Flights Between the United States and Canada Drops By Around 70%

On Sunday, I wrote about how the political situation between the United States and Canada has been rather tense during the current presidency. Talk of making Canada the 51st state and steep tariffs have created issues with our neighbors to the north. Airlines like WestJet and Flair (and even United Airlines) began reducing frequencies, pausing some routes, and even cancelling some routes altogether given the current situation. It looked like demand was quickly dropping, but I had no idea just how bad it actually was between the United States and Canada. OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited released some rather startling statistics today that show that there has been a drop of around 70% in passenger bookings when compared to the same time in 2024.

Lucky at One Mile at a Time flagged this report and it is worse than I would have guessed. For the six-month summer season bookings (2024 versus 2025), OAG found that the number of bookings is down between 71.4% to 75.7%. Taking the month of March as an example, last year there were 1,218,570 tickets booked. This year that number plummeted to 295,982. That’s shocking.

Airlines have cut capacity by 3.5% for the busiest travel months (July and August). Every month through September sees bookings down by 70% or more. If the political situation does not improve, we can expect to see the airlines cut more capacity and even drop routes altogether. Bookings from Canada to the United States (especially Florida) are huge moneymakers for the airlines and if the Canadian snowbirds don’t book those seats, we can expect those aircraft to be sent elsewhere.

#FlairAirlines to cancel 7 U.S. routes.

▪️Toronto – Nashville
▪️Edmonton – Las Vegas
▪️Edmonton – Phoenix
▪️Vancouver – Palm Springs
▪️Waterloo – Fort Lauderdale
▪️Calgary: Las Vegas, Phoenix

Source: @IshrionA

📷 ©Flair Airlines#Canada #US #aviation #AvGeek #avgeeks #flights pic.twitter.com/58lHMdn6OB

— FlightMode (@FlightModeblog) March 5, 2025

Earlier this month, I wrote about Flair (a Canadian low-cost carrier) cancelling seven US routes. Routes that are getting chopped include:

• Calgary International Airport (YYC) to/from Las Vegas Harry Reid International Airport (LAS) (ends on April 7th)
• Calgary International Airport (YYC) to/from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX) (ends on April 8th)
• Edmonton International Airport (YEG) to/from Las Vegas Harry Reid International Airport (LAS) (ends on April 7th)
• Edmonton International Airport (YEG) to/from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX) (ends on April 8th)
• Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ) to/from Nashville International Airport (BNA) (already ended)
• Vancouver International Airport (YVR) to/from Palm Springs International Airport (PSP) (ends on April 6th)
• Region of Waterloo International Airport (YKF) to/from Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) (ends on April 7th)

United Airlines reduces some Canada flights this summer:

• Toronto (YYZ) to Los Angeles (LAX) new route canceled
• Washington DC (IAD) to Ottawa (YOW) 4x → 3x daily
• Washington DC (IAD) to Montreal (YUL) 3x → 2x daily

+ some other reductions on Saturdays

— Ishrion Aviation (@IshrionA) March 21, 2025

United Airlines recently updated its schedule to cancel its planned flights between Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). It’s also planning on reducing the frequency on multiple routes including flights to/from Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) and both Montréal-Trudeau International Airport (YUL) and Ottawa/Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW) (among others).

WestJet has canceled plans to launch its new route from Calgary (YYC) to New York LaGuardia (LGA).

American Airlines still plans to begin its own LGA-YYC route this summer.

WestJet continues to serve YYC to New York JFK. WestJet also will suspend Edmonton (YEG) to Orlando (MCO)… pic.twitter.com/nWDtfGtcn5

— Ishrion Aviation (@IshrionA) March 23, 2025

Finally, WestJet is removing its new route between Calgary International Airport (YYC) and New York LaGuardia Airport (LGA) before it even launched. Service between Edmonton International Airport (YEG) and Orlando International Airport (MCO) is also being suspended from May to October.

I expect we’ll see some cuts coming from Air Canada, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines in the near future. This could create some opportunities for bargain fares between the United States and Canada, but I wouldn’t count on that as the airlines are going to look to continue to cut capacity before they take on too many losses from overly cheap tickets.

Anthony’s Take: A drop this big is monumental. I’d say it’s heading on a path towards what we saw with the pandemic if something does not change politically and fast.

(Featured Image Credit: Rarrarorro via iStock.)